气候模式对东北三省降水模拟能力评估及预估

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2016.05.008

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on datasets from global climate model CMIP 5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) and regional climate model RegCM 4 (Regional Climate Model 4),as well as precipitation data from 162 meteorological stations in Northeast China (NEC),the capability to simulate precipitation by CMIP 5 and RegCM 4 was evaluated.Additionally,precipitation changes in NEC in the future were predicted and assessed using these two models under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios,i.e.RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) 4.5 and RCP 8.5.The results show that these two models can well simulate annual and seasonal precipitation in NEC.The spatial distributions of precipitation,which gradually decreasing from southeast to northwest in NEC,are well reproduced by the two models.The simulated precipitation center lies in the north of observed position,and precipitation intensity is stronger than that of observations.The simulated precipitation in summer is more accurate than that in winter and precipitation deviation in winter is much larger.Overall,simulated results of precipitation in NEC by CMIP 5 are better.The prediction results of future precipitation show that annual and seasonal precipitation in NEC simulated by CMIP 5 increases under emission scenarios of RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5.The precipitation deviation percentage in winter is larger than that in other seasons.Under emission scenario of RCP 8.5,precipitation's increments in NEC are significant.The spatial distribution of precipitation increments decreases from south to north,and precipitation deviation percentages decrease from southwest to northeast.Under emission scenario of RCP 4.5,precipitation increments are less.The spatial distribution of predicted precipitation decreases from southeast to northwest,and precipitation deviation percentages decrease from west to east.

Key words: Global climate model, Regional climate model, Precipitation, Simulation ability, Scenarios projections

CLC Number:

P467

WANG Tao, WANG Yi-shu, CUI Yan, AO Xue, ZHAO Chun-yu, WANG Ying, ZHOU Xiao-yu, HOU Yi-ling, LIU Ming-yan, GU Zheng-qiang. Evaluation of ability of climate model for simulating precipitation in Northeast China and precipitation prediction[J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2016, 32(5): 52-60.

0
/ / Recommend

Add to citation manager EndNote|Reference Manager|ProCite|BibTeX|RefWorks

URL: http://www.jme1984.net.cn/EN/10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2016.05.008

http://www.jme1984.net.cn/EN/Y2016/V32/I5/52

References

[1] 赵宗慈,罗勇,王绍武,等.全球变暖中的科学问题[J].气象与环境学报,2015,31(1):1-5.
[2] Moss R H,Edmonds J A,Hibbard K A,et al.The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment[J].Nature,2010,463(7282):747-756.
[3] Xu Y,Xu C H.Preliminary assessment of simulations of climate changes over China by CMIP 5 multi-models[J].Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters,2012,5(6):489-494.
[4] Song F F,Zhou T J.Interannual variability of East Asian summer monsoon simulated by CMIP 3 and CMIP 5 AGCMs:Skill dependence on Indian Ocean-Western Pacific anticyclone teleconnection[J].Journal of Climate,2014,27(4):1679-1697.
[5] IPCC.Climate Change.The physical science basis:working group I contribution to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change[M].Cambridge,UK:Cambridge University Press,2013:89.
[6] 陈晓晨,徐影,许崇海,等.CMIP 5全球气候模式对中国地区降水模拟能力的评估[J].气候变化研究进展,2014,10(3):217-225.
[7] 丁一汇,任国玉,赵宗慈,等.中国气候变化的检测及预估[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2007,1(1):1-10.
[8] 姜大膀,王会军,郎咸梅.全球变暖背景下东亚气候变化的最新情景预测[J].地球物理学报,2004,47(4):590-596.
[9] 崔妍,李倩,周晓宇,等.5个全球气候模式对中国东北地区地面温度的模拟与预估[J].气象与环境学报,2013,29(4):37-46.
[10] 崔妍,周晓宇,赵春雨,等.5个IPCC AR 4全球气候模式对东北三省降水模拟与预估[J].气象与环境学报,2014,30(4):34-41.
[11] Liang X Z,Kunkel K E,Samel A N.Development of a regional climate model for U.S.midwest applications.Part I:Sensitivity to buffer zone treatment[J].Journal of Climate,2001,14(23):4363-4378.
[12] 鞠丽霞,王会军.用全球大气环流模式嵌套区域气候模式模拟东亚现代气候[J].地球物理学报,2006,49(1):52-60.
[13] Patricola C M,Cook K H.Dynamics of the west African monsoon under mid-Holocene precessional forcing:Regional climate model simulations[J].Journal of Climate,2007,20(4):694-716.
[14] 张冬峰,石英.区域气候模式RegCM 3对华北地区未来气候变化的数值模拟[J].地球物理学报,2012,55(9):2854-2866.
[15] Gao X J,Xu Y,Zhao Z C,et al.On the role of resolution and topography in the simulation of East Asia precipitation[J].Theoretical and Applied Climatology,2006,86(1/4):173-185.
[16] 王世玉,张耀存.不同区域气候模式对中国东部区域气候模拟的比较[J].高原气象,1999,18(1):28-38.
[17] 冯锦明,符淙斌.不同区域气候模式对中国地区温度和降水的长期模拟比较[J].大气科学,2007,31(5):805-814.

Evaluation of ability of climate model for simulating precipitation in Northeast China and precipitation prediction

PDF (PC)

Knowledge

Abstract

Cite this article

share this article

References

Related Articles 15

Metrics

Comments

Recommended 0

[1]	GU Zheng-qiang, GONG Qiang, CHAO Hua, ZHANG Hai-na, XU Hong, ZHU Ling, SHEN Li-du, LIN Na. Analysis of the regional division of volume capture ratio of annual rainfall runoff and its spatial variation in sponge city construction in Liaoning province [J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2019, 35(1): 59-65.
[2]	ZHANG Hai-na, HOU Yi-ling, ZHAO Chun-yu, LIU Ming-yan, WANG Tao, ZHOU Xiao-yu, CUI Yan, AO Xue, YI Xue. Simulation and projection of temperature and precipitation by CCSM4 model in Northeast China [J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2019, 35(1): 72-78.
[3]	JI Yong-ming, CHEN Chuan-lei, JIANG Da-kai, REN Zhi-jie, MENG Ying, CAI Kui-zhi, ZHANG Shuo, HU Peng-yu. Quantitative precipitation inversion algorithm based on the multi-radar mosaic II:scheme improvement and evaluation [J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2019, 35(1): 79-87.
[4]	WU Hao-min, WANG Qi, JIANG Yan-min, ZHANG Xin, LUO Xu-hui. Study on the trend of precipitation cycle in Lishui city from 1901 to 2015 [J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2018, 34(6): 96-101.
[5]	ZHENG Shi, WANG Guan, LIN Zhong-guan, GUAN Jian-hua, HUANG Xing-you. Characteristics analysis of heavy precipitation in China from 1961 to 2013 [J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2018, 34(6): 102-107.
[6]	ZHOU De-ping, SU Hang, GENG Shu-jiang, WANG Yang-feng, HONG Ye, LIU Ning-wei. Aircraft observation of atmospheric ice nuclei concentration in Liaoning and Shenyang regions [J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2018, 34(6): 133-139.
[7]	ZHANG Ping-ping, SUN Jun, DONG Liang-peng, CHEN Xuan, CHE Qin, ZHONG Min, ZHANG Meng-meng, ZHANG Ning. Analysis of extreme precipitation forecast deviation in a warm region of Hubei province in 2016 [J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2018, 34(5): 1-8.
[8]	DAI Zhu-jun, WU Hai-ying, JIANG You-shan, XIA Min-jie, ZHU Xin-jun, QING Tao. Characteristics of water vapor transport in precipitation difference between two landing typhoons of “Jelawat” and “Haiku” [J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2018, 34(5): 16-24.
[9]	QU Jin-hua, WANG Yi-shu, TAN Gui-rong. Extended range forecasting of low-frequency precipitation under different background circulations [J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2018, 34(5): 57-65.
[10]	GU Zheng-qiang, ZHU Ling, GONG Qiang, ZHAO Chun-yu, SHEN Li-du, ZHANG Hai-na, SHAN Wei-wei, REN Zhi-yong. Influence of variation in precipitation on the construction of a low-impact-development rain-water system for sponge city in Liaoning province [J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2018, 34(5): 76-85.
[11]	XU Shu;WEI Ying-hua;XIONG Ming-ming;WEI Lin. Application of Frequency-Matching method to ECMWF ensemble statistic fusing prediction products in the Haihe River basin [J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2018, 34(4): 11-17.
[12]	SONG Xiao-wei; LI Lin-lin;ZHANG Lin; LIU Qing;LI Shi; MU Chen-ying;ZHANG Jing. Adaptability evaluation of the CLIGEN model generated precipitation in Shenyang region [J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2018, 34(4): 26-35.
[13]	WU Gang-zhe;YAN Jin-zhe; REN Guo-yu; SUONAN Kan-zhuo. Relationship between fractional vegetation and climate factors in spring over the mid-west of DPR Korea [J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2018, 34(4): 112-118.
[14]	LIU Lei, ZHOU Jing, LIU Jun-jie, GAO Hui. Decadal characteristics of persistent heavy precipitation in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and its circulation pattern [J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2018, 34(3): 28-36.
[15]	AN Lin-chang, ZHANG Heng-de, LI Kai-fei. Analysis of effect of precipitation events on air pollutant concentration [J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2018, 34(3): 58-70.